The good condition of our corn crop has pressured prices this week, and those hoping for a summer bounce in prices due to possible yield loss are running out of time. USDA crop ratings continue to look good; thus, yield projections on corn look to be record high. Purdue Ag Economist Dr. Chris Hurt said, in a webinar on Tuesday, that the market has a very high average yield number dialed in, “The market is looking at an average soybean yield of around 50 bpa and a corn yield of 180 bpa. This would be a record, surpassing last year’s corn yield record of 176.6 bpa.”
While it is still early in the growing season, Hurt says, historically, these early estimates have proven pretty accurate, “History has shown that the estimates of July 4th are about 80% correlated with the final yield number. The estimate in two weeks will be 90% correlated with final yields. So you can see we are starting to zero in on what the final yield is likely to be.” At this date, the estimates on soybeans are not quite as accurate.
While there still are things that could happen that would reduce yields, Hurt sees very little in the way of any major weather problems in the next few weeks that will stress the crop, “Temperatures will be above normal but we have plenty of rain in the forecast so on a whole there is very little chance we will see anything that will stress this crop.” In other words, a mid-summer price bounce based on crop stress, may not happen this year.