Uncertainty Plagues Market in Advance of USDA Yield Guesses

Uncertainty Plagues Market in Advance of USDA Yield Guesses

Uncertainty Plagues Market in Advance of USDA Yield Guesses


Jim Bower

Corn had a positive start to the week as traders were feeling uncertainty with mixed weather and the unknowns of the USDA report on Thursday. With the extreme variability in crop conditions between the Eastern and Western Corn Belt and even within fields, coming up with accurate yield numbers will be challenging. Jim Bower, with Bower Trading says the market estimates may be a bit high, “The market is expecting a corn yield of 166.2 and 47.5 on soybeans. My opinion from my clients that I have talked with is that the corn number is too high.  The soybean number is close to what it will be.” Bloomberg survey (pre-report) pegs 9/18 corn/bean stocks at 1.940 bil bu/433 mb respectively.

Last week corn and soybean prices moved lower as traders took some of  June’s weather premium out of the market.  Bower says, as a result, the market is oversold going into Thursday’s USDA report, “The funds will have a big influence on the trade reaction early, but after an hour the market will go back to trading weather.”

Right now that weather outlook does not show a lot of stress on crops in August. “That will be a major factor in the soybean market,” added Bower. “With the right weather we could add a lot of production in soybeans.”

In the meantime, if you have questions about the report and how to prepare for it, contact Bower Trading at 800-533-8045 or bowertrading.com.

Hoosier Ag Today will have a live feed on Facebook of the Purdue analysis of the crop report. It will begin Thursday afternoon at 1:30 on the HAT Facebook page, sponsored by MacAllister farm equipment.

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